Hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, form over warm ocean waters, typically when sea surface temperatures exceed 26.5°C (approximately 80°F). The warm water fuels the storm, providing the heat and moisture necessary for the convection process that leads to the formation of thunderstorms and, eventually, hurricanes.
Key Factors Influencing Hurricane Behavior
- Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer ocean temperatures contribute to stronger hurricanes. A study by Kossin et al. (2020) in the journal Nature found that the ocean’s warming has increased the likelihood of rapid intensification in hurricanes. This means storms can reach peak intensity much faster than in the past, posing greater risks to affected areas.
- Atmospheric Conditions: Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, influenced by climate change, can affect hurricane tracks and lifespans. A paper published in Geophysical Research Letters by Emanuel (2017) indicated that shifts in wind patterns could lead to more hurricanes taking unusual paths, potentially impacting regions previously considered safe.
- Humidity and Precipitation: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that for every 1°C increase in temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This results in heavier rainfall during hurricanes, leading to increased flooding risks even from storms of similar intensity compared to those in the past.
- Rising Sea Levels: As sea levels rise due to melting ice caps and thermal expansion of seawater, coastal areas face greater risks from storm surges. According to a study in Nature Climate Change by Tebaldi et al. (2012), rising sea levels can exacerbate the impact of hurricanes, leading to more severe flooding in coastal communities.
The Increasing Frequency of Major Hurricanes
While the overall number of hurricanes may not have increased dramatically, the proportion of major hurricanes (Category 3 and above) has risen. Research published in Nature by Kossin (2018) suggests that this trend is directly correlated with rising global temperatures. More major hurricanes mean greater destruction, as these storms carry stronger winds and can cause catastrophic damage.
This can be seen by the most recent hurricane Helene which caused widespread destruction across Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Asheville, North Carolina was hit especially hard. Due to the increased intensity from climate change and an already heavy rainfall from a different front that had accumulated over the days beforehand as noted in an article from Julia Jacobo. The topography of the area also did not help as the mountains create an effect that increases the amount of moisture in the air which caused a much heavier precipitation than initially expected. All of this together created the immense flooding that had hit Asheville.
Regional Variability and Vulnerability
The impacts of climate change on hurricane seasons are not uniform across the globe. Regions like the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico have seen an uptick in hurricane activity, while other areas may experience a decrease. Coastal communities, especially those with vulnerable infrastructure and populations, face significant challenges. The combination of more intense storms, rising sea levels, and increased flooding can overwhelm emergency services and disrupt local economies.
Looking Ahead: Preparing for a Changing Climate with Floodlight
Floodlight offers climate risk as well as GHG data on a per asset level. This can help get companies prepared for a myriad of potential future events like hurricanes along with a myriad of other climate risks such as heat wave, yearly precipitation increases, or hail. Floodlight is able to provide this risk data up to the year 2100 for any given asset.
References
- Kossin, J. P., et al. (2020). “Extreme storms and climate change.” Nature.
- Emanuel, K. (2017). “Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall.” Geophysical Research Letters.
- IPCC (2021). “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.”
- Tebaldi, C., et al. (2012). “Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surge flooding.” Nature Climate Change.
- Kossin, J. P. (2018). “A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed.” Nature.
- Julia Jacobo (2024). “Why was the flooding in Asheville, North Carolina, so extreme? Meteorologists explain.” abc NEWS
AI was used to assist in the writing of this article
